Logical qubits
TBD- Bitcoin-relevant target
- 3,000-10,000+ logical qubits
Logical, error-corrected qubits matter more than physical qubit headlines.
Quantum Risk Institute
Can Quantum Computers Crack Bitcoin Today?
NOThe Bitcoin Quantum Index tracks public quantum computing progress against the cryptographic milestones that would be required to threaten Bitcoin signatures and modern public-key encryption.
Live public capability index
Quantum Threat Level - monitored in real time
A calm, evidence-based score that tracks public quantum progress against cryptographic milestones relevant to Bitcoin. Last updated: 2026-06-29.
Current Level: 12
Today's level explained
About the index
The Quantum Threat Level tracks public quantum progress against Bitcoin and modern public-key cryptography milestones. It is not a prediction or financial advice. Learn more
12 / 100
Status: LOW
Bitcoin Status: SAFE
Updated 3 hours ago
Inputs to the 0-100 score
Evidence signals behind the Bitcoin Quantum Index
These four signals are the live inputs QRI watches to place the dial. The milestone ladder below is the separate 0-100 capability scale.
Error correction quality
Early stageCryptographic attacks require calculations to remain accurate for very long circuit depths.
Largest public key broken
- RSA
- Research demonstration only
- ECC
- Research demonstration only
This tracks the largest publicly verified cryptographic break using quantum methods.
Bitcoin threat
- Status
- Safe
- Risk
- Low
Bitcoin's main quantum risk is exposed public keys and signatures, not SHA-256 suddenly failing.
Capability ladder
Quantum Threat Level Milestones
0
No error-corrected quantum computer
Only research experiments. Nothing in your digital life is at risk.
10100 logical qubits
Scientists can run small algorithms reliably. Mostly academic demonstrations.
20Shor breaks tiny demo keys
Quantum computers can crack toy encryption used only in research labs.
3064-bit RSA/ECC
Far below anything protecting your accounts or money.
40128-bit RSA/ECC
Major scientific milestone. Governments accelerate migration. Consumer accounts remain safe.
50512-bit RSA
Old legacy encryption starts becoming vulnerable. Modern banking and websites remain secure.
601024-bit RSA
Serious warning. Some older VPNs and corporate systems become vulnerable.
70RSA-2048
Modern internet certificates could be broken. Major institutions should already be post-quantum.
80ECC P-256
Cryptography comparable to Bitcoin signatures can now be attacked.
90Exposed Bitcoin public keys
Old Bitcoin wallets with revealed public keys become vulnerable if not migrated.
100Large-scale quantum cryptanalysis
Most classical public-key cryptography is obsolete unless replaced.
Methodology preview
How the Quantum Threat Level is calculated
The score does not mean Bitcoin is "12% broken." It is a public evidence-based capability index that tracks quantum progress against known cryptographic milestones.
- Logical qubit count
- Logical error rate
- Maximum logical circuit depth
- Largest RSA key publicly factored
- Largest ECC key publicly broken
- Largest Shor's algorithm implementation
- Post-quantum migration by governments, browsers, cloud providers, HSMs, and major blockchains
Current status: public quantum capability remains far below the level believed necessary to threaten Bitcoin signatures.
Media context
Quantum Headlines vs Reality
We analyze quantum news and separate hype from real cryptographic progress.
View all analysis